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Using computer simulations, scientists determined the personality types best suited for stays of up to 28 years on the Red Planet
New research suggests that a settlement on Mars could get up and running with far N fewer settlers than previously predicted. The study also looked at what personality types are best adapted to longterm stays on the Red Planet. The research, conducted by scientists from George Mason University in Virginia and other institutions, looked at the challenges that would face Mars settlers as they build and maintain a self-sustaining human presence. The research comes as space agencies across the globe begin planning future long-stay space missions on the Moon and eventually on the Red Planet.
As the study has it, under two dozen people are needed to start a future Mars settlement. “From our multiple simulations and scenarios, we found that an initial population of 22 was the minimum required to maintain a viable settlement size over the long run,” the authors wrote in a paper detailing their findings, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, published on the research repository site arXiv. “We find that the minimum number of people with all personality types that can lead to a sustainable settlement is in the tens and not hundreds.”
To answer these questions and better determine the behavioural and psychological interactions of future Martian settlers, the team employed a computer modelling approach called Agent-Based Modelling (ABM). ABMs are commonly used to study the interactions between people, things and places over time. The researchers also considered data regarding groups of humans in other high-stress remote situations, including aboard the International Space Station (ISS). This allowed them to test the minimum number of people needed to keep a Mars outpost running, sometimes for as long as almost three decades. The model used by the team assumes that the Mars settlement has already been constructed and that food, air and water are being produced in-situ on the Red Planet. That means that the simulated Martian base doesn’t require start-up time.
The ABM settlement also has a nuclear generator established that has a steady source of electricity for a minimum of seven years. The purpose of this simulated settlement is to mine minerals from the Red Planet to be sent back to Earth. Running the test for 28 years five times over, the outpost population sizes varied from 10 to 170 to find the stable population size.
In addition to finding that a base could operate over long periods with just 22 people, the team determined that the settlement could survive if its population dropped as lo
