We look at Tesla’s chances of going from 1.31 million cars last year to 20m by 2030
NICK GIBBS
Tesla will fail to meet its target of delivering 20 million cars per year by 2030 unless it imminently introduces new models to bring more customers to the brand, a leading analytics firm has told Autocar.
During its 1 March Investor Day, labelled by some as disappointing for its lack of a new car reveal, CEO Elon Musk instead showcased new, highly efficient working processes that will drive down the cost of future vehicles and allow the US firm to grow its output.
But for the four-model car maker to go from 1.31m deliveries last year to almost 19 times that in only seven years, more than just new production processes are needed, according to the analyst arm of banking firm Bernstein.
Toyota, the world’s biggest car company, for example, last year sold just over 10m and it has a global reach stretching into nearly all markets, some of which it dominates entirely.
Currently, Tesla relies on its Model Y and Model 3 (1.25m) for the bulk of its sales – and that is expected to lessen, given their age, reckons Daniel Roeska, Bernstein’s lead automotive analyst.
“EV models have generally struggled to increase volume beyond the third or fourth year of introduction,” he said. “We struggle to see how Tesla can meet consensus expectations of 2.4m-2.5m [in 2024] without a new model.” Bernstein predicts the firm will hit 1.9m sales in 2023.
Tesla has already pressed the nuclear option to stimulate sales by cutting prices by as much as £8000 on the Model Y and Model 3. The firm reckons it can do this without harming its impressive profits because the cars are cheaper to build.
At Investor Day, chief financial officer Zach Kirkhorn revealed that Tesla had taken 30% of the cost out of building the Model 3 since 2018. “Cost reduction is deeply ingrained in our culture,” he said.
Tesla is now building cars from four global assembly plants and will add a fifth in Mexico. More will have to be built to fulfil Musk’s goal. But with more production capability comes more pressure to sell.
Its Berlin plant recently celebrated hitting 4000 Model Ys a week. But because plants are at their most efficient, and cost per vehicle is at its cheapest, when they are running as close to full capacity as makes sense, the pressure to sell becomes intense, which leads to spiralling price cuts.
In China, Tesla aimed to run its Shanghai plant at 20,000 a week in the first quarter after enacting price cuts
