While the smart money will be on a return to the front for Red Bull in Japan following Ferrari’s day in the Aussie sun, the opening corners could be interesting…
ALEX KALINAUCKAS
If you were on the internet at all following the 2024 Australian Grand Prix, you’ll know all about the statistics and quirks that the result churned up – how Carlos Sainz and Ferrari are the only non-Red Bull winners in 26 races, and that in all three of the Spaniard’s Formula 1 career wins George Russell has crashed out in a Mercedes. Now, thanks to F1’s calendar twist for 2024, the championship is also heading back to the same track that followed Sainz’s 2023 Singapore triumph: Suzuka.
After been humbled on Singapore’s bumps and kerbs, Max Verstappen was out to set the record straight last year in Japan. The Suzuka track’s mix of corner types and its abrasive surface are exactly the ingredients for a Red Bull of the current era to dominate upon. In 2023, the RB19 was so good on its tyres that Verstappen could unleash a medium-medium-hard strategy, and his winning margin was just 0.6 seconds shy of his 20s target. Therefore, predicting anything other than another Red Bull rise back to the front after its shock Melbourne defeat would be folly.
But, as ever, F1 is much more interesting than just the fate of the frontrunner. At Suzuka last year, McLaren led the way in terms of chasing Red Bull, and it will be hoping that Suzuka’s high-speed sections and comparatively few low-speed areas can bring it to the front of the chasing pack for the first time this year, after going well in Australia. At Mercedes, its ongoing high-speed bouncing problem may well be exposed again.
But the contrasting fortunes of the Ferrari drivers continues to be a storyline worth following closely, with Charles Leclerc now winless in nearly 18 months and Sainz still unemployed for 2025. At Suzuka last year, the Spaniard arrived from his brilliant purple patch of Zandvoort, Monza and the Singapore win, with the Monegasque somewhat lagging behind. Yet it was Leclerc who led Ferrari on that autumn Suzuka weekend. The requirement to protect the rear tyres at this venue favours Leclerc’s ability to cope better than Sainz with a more lively rear end. Avoiding such sliding is critical to any driver succeeding on what remains one of F1’s classic, fearsome tracks – one the competitors love.
But, just six months on from the championship’s last visit here, there are critical differences that may scupper expectations of an exact 20
