Scientists say that, with the right forecasting, we could track major earthquakes years in advance
GEOLOGY
Major earthquakes could be predicted months or even years before they strike by detecting unique seismic signals, according to new research from a team of German scientists.
The research, published in Nature Communications, suggests that, for more accurate earthquake warning systems, we need more local and regional sites to detect underground signals. It also advises that monitoring secondary faults after a primary fault ruptures could further increase the accuracy of readings.
The team studied data relating to the Kahramanmaraş earthquake that hit Turkey in early 2023, and found that there was an acceleration in seismic event rates and larger energy release roughly eight months before the tremor.
These signals were detected in clusters within 65km (40 miles) of the epicentre. Although the main rupture occurred on a fault line and in an area known to be at risk of earthquakes, signals prior to the event were detected on both main and secondary faults, which hadn’t received much attention from scientists.
Some larger earthquakes are preceded by a ‘preparation phase’, during which signals may be detected. However, the research team noted that such monitoring can be challenging, with so many variables to observe at the same time.
Currently, short-term prediction of earthquake magnitude, time and location is impossible. The
