“Complacency is driving a wrecking ball through climate commitments”
OPINION
Governments will meet in Dubai for the COP28 UN climate summit on 30th November 2023, to assess progress on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It will come as no surprise to hear that we’re nowhere near on track. We’re stuffing it up.
There is now little chance of limiting the global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (the legally binding pledge made by world leaders at the 2015 Paris summit).
“The era of global boiling has arrived”, according to the UN secretary general, António Guterres. “It is terrifying,” he said. “And it is just the beginning.” Pay attention to the news headlines – which are sounding increasingly like the beginning of a cataclysmic end-of-the-world science fiction movie – and you’ll know instinctively that he is right.
A global pattern of record heatwaves, off-the-charts wildfires, devastating floods, droughts, crop failures, Antarctic and Arctic sea ice levels plummeting, and increasingly severe and more frequent storms are ringing alarm bells loud and clear. It’s entirely consistent with all those scientific predictions and repeated warnings ever since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s first report in 1990. The only surprise is the rapidity of the change. What was once likened to Armageddon in slow motion seems to have speeded up.
This is all happening when the world is, on average, about 1.1°C hotter than pre-industrial times. Just imagine the dire consequences if we allow it to get much hotter.
Chances are we’ll find out soon enough. According to research by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), we are highly likely to breach the magic level of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels between now and 2027. To begin with, it is likely to be on a temporary basis, but WMO predicts that we’ll breach it with increasing frequency. That would send the world into “uncharted territory”, the UN agency warned.
Yet many politicians continue to think only in the short-term. They dislike spending money on preventative action (unless it’s to show military might) and their archetypal response is to prevaricate, procrastinate and negotiate. Such complacency is driving a wrecking ball through international climate commitments.
I used to put it down to the fact that many politicians simply didn’t understand global warming with all its subtle complexities a
