► As this is the first issue to be published in 2024, here are my personal predictions for what might or might not happen, motor trade wise, over the next twelve months. Like the back row bargains though, these are all ‘as seen and without warranty.’
Firstly, I think used car prices will fall in 2024 as supply chain problems are resolved and the main issue currently affecting take-up of electric vehicles (a lack of charging points where they are needed) becomes easier. I also think that the muchpublicised recent drops in the price of some electric cars will further increase uptake, and the (quite literal) switchover will continue. Yes. there have been teething troubles, but that happens with most new technologies. A lot of people know this and wait until such problems are resolved before buying; my gut feeling is that we’re on the cusp of take-up taking off. And more widespread availability of electric cars will inevitably increase pressure on petrol and (especially) diesel car prices.
But at the other end of the value-spectrum, I think the minimum price for a roadworthy/worthwhile car is likely to settle at around £500 and that’s for something which might well not get through another test. The days of the £250 banger to drive forever are over; most cars are now worth more than that for scrap! And with today’s cars containing far more valuable metals (alloy wheels, catalytic converters, etc., and modern methods meaning much more is recovered for recycling, the days of scrap cars having low or even negative values have, I’m sure, gone for good.
On the dealer side of things, I reckon we’re going to see further rationalisation – the past twelve months have seen something of a polarisation in terms of profitability, with some groups having record years and others seeing massive year-on-year drops. Interestingly, there seem to be old and new, corporate and privately owned, and traditional and online-based groups in both camp
