The UK spends above the Nato average on the armed forces, but doesn’t spend wisely, which has left the country with worrying deficiencies in a time of global conflict. Simon Wilson reports
What’s happened?
Nato began a massive programme of military exercises this week, involving a total of 90,000 troops across Eastern Europe and the Baltics. The UK’s contribution is considerable, and involves all three armed services. About 16,000 British Army troops will be deployed between now and June; on Tuesday, some 600 military vehicles were loaded for shipping to northern Germany. Royal Air Force aircraft, including F-35B Lightning II jets and Poseidon P8 surveillance aircraft, will practise simulated conflict scenarios. More than 400 Royal Marines Commandos are heading to the Arctic Circle as part of an allied task group. And the Royal Navy is deploying eight warships and submarines, and more than 2,000 sailors. They are the biggest Nato military exercises for decades, and they come at a difficult time for the alliance – and for the UK armed forces.
Why is it a difficult time?
There’s a growing sense that the war in Ukraine could presage a wider conflict between Russia and Europe within a few years, for which Nato nations – including Britain – are not remotely ready. In January, defence secretary Grant Shapps warned that the UK is “moving from a post-war to a pre-war world”, and must start to prepare. And at a moment of potential existential peril for Nato, there’s ominous uncertainty about America’s future commitments, especially in the event of conflict with China. According to RUSI defence analyst Justin Bronk, in the event of US “military confrontation with China in the mid-to-late 2020s, Russia will have a strong incentive to take a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to break Nato while the US cannot reinforce Europe effectively”. There’s anxiety, too, about the likely return to power of Donald Trump.
Is that a worry?
Yes, because an unstable US president in thrall to authoritarian strongmen leaders – and in particular to Vladimir Putin – is a clear danger to an alliance built on liberal-democratic values, and whose purpose is to deter Soviet, now Russian, aggression. Trump shocked European leaders last week with his wild claim that once in office he would encourage Russian assailants to “do whatever the hell they want” to “delinquent” European allies – meaning tho
