The numbers attempting to cross the southern border to enter the United States have soared, and not just from the countries to the south. What’s going on? Simon Wilson reports
Briefing
How big is the problem?
More unauthorised migrants are crossing the US southern border than ever before, according to official statistics. The US Customs and Border Protection agency uses the word “encounters” to document the number of times it intercepts migrants attempting to cross the border. These include people who apply for asylum and are either detained or released pending a long court process, and those who are immediately expelled. In the 2010s, border agents recorded around 400,000-500,000 encounters a year. But in the past four years, the average number has been about two million. The number of encounters surged dramatically when Covid restrictions were lifted in early 2021, just as Joe Biden took office – and two months ago, in December 2023, it hit a monthly all-time high of 302,000. Since Biden became president, more than 3.1 million border-crossers have been admitted to the US, and at least a further 1.7 million have come in undetected, or overstayed their visas.
Why have numbers jumped?
Simply put, more people are on the move worldwide than ever before. According to the OECD club of developed nations, some 6.1 million new permanent migrants moved to its 38 member states in 2022. That was a jump of 26% from 2021, and 14% higher than in 2019, pre-pandemic. Growing political instability, repression, violence and economic turmoil in many parts of the world – from Latin America to the Middle East to China – means that the total number of refugees and asylum-seekers grew from 30 million in 2019 to 43 million by the middle of 2023, according to the UN’s refugee agency (UNHCR). It’s scarcely surprising that plenty of them want to get to the US, the world’s biggest economy and a rich, stable democracy with a long record of welcoming migrants.
Who comes?
Back in 2013, about 64% of migrant encounters on the southern US border involved citizens of Mexico, and almost all the rest were from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador (the three “Northern Triangle” nations of Central America). By 2023, by contrast, Mexicans accounted for only about 27%, and the Northern Triangle nations another 19% or so. More than half, 54%, now come from countries that barely figured ten years ago: Venezuela (ac
