Europe relies on the US for military support; the US is losing the will. Emily Hohler reports
Politics & economics
Russian officials “appear to be relishing a gaffe” by French president Emmanuel Macron, who said at a crisis meeting on Monday that a Western troop deployment in Ukraine should “not be ruled out”, says Holly Ellyatt on CNBC. His comments were swiftly rejected by Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg and Nato members including Germany, Spain and Italy.
The Kremlin says that if troops were deployed to fight in Ukraine, conflict between Russia and Nato would become “inevitable”. France later clarified Macron’s comments, saying that assistance in areas such as mine clearance and cyber defence could “require a presence” in Ukraine without “crossing the threshold of fighting”.
As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, Nato faces a “conundrum”, say Steven Erlanger and David Sanger in The New York Times. America, which is by far the biggest contributor to the war effort – €42.2bn compared to Germany’s €17.7bn and the UK’s €9.1bn – “has the capacity to keep Kyiv supplied with the weapons, technology and intelligence to fend off a takeover by Moscow”.
However, Washington is perceived by Europe as having “lost its will”. Europe has the will, but not the capacity. Vladimir Putin shows no signs of wanting to end the war. Contrary to Western hopes, sanctions have “lost their sting”, the Russian economy contracted only briefly, and with the military stimulus is now growing faster than Germany’s. Income from oil exports is greater than it was pre-invasion.
The time to act is now
“Russia is becoming more dangerous, America less reliable and Europe remains unprepared,” says The Economist. Moscow is spending 7.1% of its GDP on defence. Denmark’s defence minister warns that, within three to five years, Putin could launch operations against a Nato member with the aim of wrecking the pledge to come to one another’s aid in the event of an attack. At the same time, “Western deterrence is weakening”. Nato lacks fighting capacity and many countries lack other capabilities from aircraft to satellites.
Given the timescales involved in military planning, Europe needs to act now. The priority is boosting its ability to fight, starting with a “massive programme of recruitment and procurement”. None of this will be cheap, and despite significan
