“The odds quoted for next year’s F1 world champion are curious to say the least”
DIARY
There are plenty saying the 2024 Formula 1 season is a foregone conclusion. They point to recent periods of power by Mercedes, Red Bull and back to Ferrari which won respectively eight, four and six constructors’ titles on the trot in their dominant eras. So it would seem that Red Bull’s current winning streak, on paper the most dominant team since Alfa’s clean sweep in 1950 (which was only six races long if you exclude the Indy 500), is just getting going.
And the reason for this, they continue, is that Red Bull would have known early on that the title was theirs, so they’d have been able to divert human and financial resources to their 2024 car while everyone else was piling their resources into closing the gap.
I’m not so sure. Because it’s not just Red Bull that must have known the final destination of both titles long in advance, and were you one of its rivals, would you chuck everything you had at what you already knew to be a lost cause? Or would you simply accept the inevitable and turn your attention to next year’s car too? Of course it’s not as simplistic as that and we saw from some of the extraordinary see-sawing of form behind the Red Bulls, particularly from the McLaren and Aston Martin teams, that some were clearly very focused on the current season and the financial rewards of doing well in the championship race.
But I still think we’re in for a far better season next year and while I fully expect Red Bull to win again, will it be by such a massive margin as we saw in 2023? I think not.
Another thing likely – but not guaranteed – to take place in 2024 is a general election. And while I can raise precisely zero enthusiasm for any of the available options, I’ll still be following closely because I have a great interest in politics as a subject, if not politicians as individuals. What I don’t understand is the credence given to polling data. If you want to know who’s going to win, why not ask a bookmaker instead? Unlike psephologists, bookies have to put their money where their mouths are, so who’s more likely to get it right?
Even so, the odds currently quoted for next year’s driver’s world champion are curious to say the least. As I write this the best I can find for Max is 1/3 which is fair enough. But who would you say was second favourite? It’s not Checo, Lewis, Fernando or Charles, despite them finishing respective second, third, fourth and
