Analysis Climate
Global weather phenomena are conspiring to raise temperatures further this year, adding to human-driven climate change, finds Madeleine Cuff
SPIKING temperatures in the world’s oceans and the arrival of El Niño weather conditions in the Pacific mean that 2023 is shaping up to be the hottest year on record, with researchers saying the planet is entering “uncharted territory”. The hottest year on record is 2016, which is also when the world was last in a warming El Niño weather pattern (although other agencies say 2020 also tied for the top spot). Now, temperature records this month suggest 2023 could be tracking close to 2016. The first 11 days of June registered the highest global temperatures on record for this time of the year, according to Copernicus, the European Union’s Earth observation programme, following on from the secondwarmest May on record and the fourth-warmest April.
The peak occurred on 9 June, when the average global air temperature was 16.7°C (62°F), just 0.1°C below the warmest ever recorded on 13 August 2016.
While human-driven climate change continues to raise global temperatures, there is no evidence to suggest that the process is accelerating this year. Instead, specific warming conditions are being layered on top of the 1.3°C temperature rise caused by climate change so far, pushing records ever higher.
One of the drivers of the recent heat surge has been the warmth in and above the oceans. For months, scientists have been warning that sea surface temperatures have been at record highs, driven by marine heatwaves around the world. In the North Atlantic on 17 June, temperatures peaked at 23°C (73.4°F), 0.2°C above the previous high set in 2010.
It isn’t yet clear why the oceans are so hot now, particularly given that El Niño conditions, which drive warmer sea temperatures, have only just arrived and won’t peak until the end of the year.
2016 The hottest year on record so far
16.8°C Warmest average global air temperature (62°F) , seen on 13 August 2016
16.7°C Average global air temperature recorded on 9 June 2023
Weakened trade winds as a result of changes in atmospheric dynamics is perhaps the most likely explanation, says Samantha Burgess at Copernicus. In the North Atlantic, a slump in wind strength may have reduced the amount of dust blowing through this part of the ocean from the Sahara, which usually has a cooling impact.
The surge in ocean and air temperatures is surprising for the time of year, says Burgess. Globally speaking, the first few days of June breached a 1.5°C increase in temperatures compared with the same time of the year in preindustrial times – athresho
