Special report: Focus on India
Climate change
As the world’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, India’s climate policy will shape the fate of the planet. But developing its economy while keeping emissions down will be tough, says James Dinneen
“THE entire world is watching us,” said India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, in a speech at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai late last year. “Mother Earth is looking toward us to protect her future. We have to succeed.” This call for climate action was meant to be a global one, but it could have applied to India alone, as the world’s most populous country increasingly sets the course for our climate future.
India is now the world’s third largest annual emitter of greenhouse gases after China and the US, having overtaken the European Union just last year.
Under Modi’s government, India has also taken steps to rein in these rising emissions while simultaneously addressing widespread energy poverty.
Renewable energy is booming on the subcontinent. There is growing adoption of electric vehicles – especially two-wheelers – and there are ambitious plans for it to become a green hydrogen powerhouse. With Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) expected to win India’s election, which saw polls open on 19 April with results due on 4 June, the question is what he will do next.
Spiralling demand
India’s path to net-zero emissions remains fraught with difficult choices, from how to supply rapidly rising demand for energy while transitioning away from coal power to the risk of a green trade war with China. While India is only responsible for about 3 per cent of the historical emissions driving climate change, its modern emissions mean the course it takes will prove critical if the world is to succeed at avoiding the most dangerous consequences of warming.
Modi’s climate record began in 2015, just a year after he first came to power, when India joined the Paris Agreement, the global pledge to hold global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Since then, Modi’s administration has become the first Indian government to set specific national climate targets. The main one, announced in 2021, is for India to reach net-zero emissions by 2070. That is a decade slower than China’s net-zero target and two decades behind the US, but many see this as justified given India’s small share of past emissions.
India’s slower approach to decarbonisation also reflects the fact that its per capita emissions are low, at less than half the global average. These are even lower among India’s vast rural population, many of whom lack acce
