Mathematics of life
The Monty Hall problem shows how important it is to take care when judging the odds, in science and life, says Peter Rowlett
Peter Rowlett is a mathematics lecturer, podcaster and author based at Sheffield Hallam University, UK. Follow him @peterrowlett
Mathematics of life reveals the mathematical ideas and shortcuts behind everyday situations. It appears monthly
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CALCULATING probabilities can be tricky, with subtle changes in context giving quite different results. I was reminded of this recently after setting BrainTwister #10 for New Scientist readers, which was about the odds of seating two pairs of people adjacently in a row of 22 chairs.
Several readers wrote to say my solution was wrong. I had figured out all the possible seating arrangements and counted the ones that had the two groups adjacent. The readers, meanwhile, seated one pair first and then counted the ways of seating the second pair adjacently. Neither approach was wrong, depending on how you read the question.
This subtlety with probability is illustrated nicely by the Monty Hall problem, which is based on the long-running US game show Let’s Make a Deal. A contestant tries to guess which of three doors conceals a big prize. They guess at random, with ⅓ probability of finding the prize. In the puzzle, host Monty Hall doesn’t open the chosen door. Instead, he opens one of the other doors to reveal a “zonk”, an item of little value. He then offers the contestant the opportunity to switch to the remaining door or stick with their first choice.
Hall said in 1991 that the game is designed so contestants make the mistaken assumption that, since there are now two choices, their ⅓ probability has increased to ½. This, combined with a psychological preference to avoid giving up a prize already won, means people tend to stick.
Marilyn vos Savant published the problem in her column in Parade magazine in 1990
