NORTH KOREA
‘ The Hermit Kingdom’ has survived decades of totalitarian rule, but bellicose statements from its leader, Kim Jong Un, could signal trouble ahead. Newsweek analyzes scenarios that could trigger its demise
THE NORTH KOREA OF 2024 IS MORE BELLIGerent, provocative and focused on its military than ever before. Pyongyang has put itself on a war footing, upping its defense production and forging ahead with ballistic missile tests that are deeply alarming to South Korea, Japan and the U.S.
“It is a fait accompli that a war can break out at any time on the Korean peninsula,” was the message from North Korea’s supreme leader, Kim Jong Un, as the world rang in the new year, with some researchers believing he has made a strategic decision to take his nation into battle.
“North Korea is ramping up tensions because at this point in time it doesn’t see any downside to it,” argued Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King’s College London.
Pyongyang has stepped closer to Russia since the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, and Pacheco Pardo told Newsweek Kim feels emboldened by this transformed relationship with Moscow as well as the protection his regime receives from Beijing. Anna Rosenberg, head of geopolitics for Amundi Investment Institute, agreed, adding: “ There’s going to be a lot more noise from North Korea this year, and when you look at the geopolitical context, it’s the perfect year for that.”
The U.S. has its thoughts elsewhere, with the war in Ukraine, violence in the Middle East and the upcoming presidential elections, she told Newsweek.
But despite his strong rhetoric, there are still doubts the “Hermit Kingdom” will stand the test of time. Kim’s strongman tactics come with “risks,” Pacheco Pardo said.
North Korea faces big unknowns that could upset the strong trajectory it has set out on and pave the way for a future in which the nation does not exist as we now know it.
It is not clear what a collapse would look like. It could be reunification with its southern neighbor or the end of the Kim family regime and the grip it has maintained on the country since 1948.
Experts broadly agree there are a handful of events that could trigger its demise, including war. It could be the unexpected death of Kim, or a popular uprising may gain momentum if backed by the country’s security institutions. There may be a coup in the upper echelons of power, or a challenge to the regime and economy from a family member’s business connections in China.
“Both Beijing and Moscow could d
