WORLD
Despite reversing its one-child policy, the nation is having to deal with an unprecedented decline in births
FOR DECADES, CHINA HAS TRIED to rein in its population growth, permitting families only one child. Now, as it faces a decline, Beijing is trying to reverse what appears to be an almost inevitable trend, including by limiting abortions.
In January 2023, China’s National Bureau of Statistics revealed the population had fallen for the first time in decades—down roughly 850,000 people in 2022 from the previous year’s 1.41 billion.
For a country whose massive workforce has helped push toward a rapid economic expansion, falling birth rates spells pessimism.
Wang Feng, a professor of sociology at the University of California, Irvine, and a leading expert on demography, aging and inequality, said the decline in the most populous country is unprecedented.
“It is long-term, irreversible and deep,” he told Newsweek. “By one projection of the United Nations, by the end of this century China may have a population size that’s barely above half of what it is now,” he continued.
“In less than 30 years, by 2050, the median age of China’s population— half of the population—will reach over the age of 50, up from less than 40 at the turn of the century.” In 2022, Beijing introduced policies improving pre- and post-natal services, hoping to boost births. But the measures are yet to reverse the decline—and experts think they might not be enough.
How China Reached This Point
This demographic shift has been similar to that of Western countries; as child mortality decreased, people had fewer children, and as the cost of raising a child increased, many were unable to afford to have them—especially millennials, hit by two recessions during their lifetime.
“More and more, young people do not want to have kids or even marry,” Susan Greenhalgh, research professor of Chinese society at the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies at Harvard University, told Newsweek.
“ The cost of raising a child [in China] is exorbitant—it’s the second highest in the world, after South Korea— and for women, who already bear the burden and time demands of child care, having two would mean losing their jobs, income and the freedom that came with having only one child early,” Greenhalgh said.
Also, since reversing the one-child rule with 2016’s two-child policy— later increased to three—Chinese women have been discriminated against “because employers now assume any woman worker might have two or three kids and be too costly to keep on board,” she added.
“The new policies are asking young women to pay the price of reengineering society to meet the new needs.” China is trying to boost birthrates by making fertility treatment more accessible, but, according to Greenhalgh,
