VIEWPOINT
Misha Glenny on why Chinese designs on Taiwan pose the biggest threat to the world today
Calmed by the gentle pastel reds of the Confucian Temple in the southern city of Tainan, nobody bats an eyelid when the Taiwanese military’s F-16s roar past every 15 minutes. Close to the southern tip of this lush, semi-tropical island, the fighter jets are tracking the countless balloons, drones, boats and planes that are sent as a tedious provocation from mainland China.
For the visitor there is a certain frisson on spotting the f irst two or three signs directing people to one of the ubiquitous underground bomb shelters. But this soon wears off.
Some call it the most important place in the world; others say it is the most dangerous. It’s probably both. Yet for a country that carries such expectations and threats, it is striking just how ordinary and relaxed Taiwan is.
The importance of Taiwan is inextricably linked to its most remarkable company – the Taiwan Semiconductor Company, or TSMC. This produces 90 per cent of the world’s advanced microchips – the cutting-edge ones used in iPhones and the manufacturer of choice for Nvidia, the AI chip specialists. TSMC boasts annual revenues of more than $70 billion – and the semiconductor industry accounts for a staggering 15 per cent of Taiwanese GDP.
The danger lies in the fact that communist China’s president, Xi Jinping, has promised to reunite Taiwan with the mainland, peacefully if possible; by force if necessary. In the latter event, the US has committed itself to defending the island; that, in a nutshell, is why Taiwan is considered the most likely flashpoint of a conflict that would dwarf all other current wars.
We are still a long way from that, but China’s military build-up over the past 15 years has been dramatic. Although the US defence budget is three times greater than China’s, American forces are active in virtually every part of the world. Chinese forces have, by contrast, one priority: Taiwan. “China has more than 1,900 fighter aircraft to Taiwan’s 300, 71 submarines to Taiwan’s two… 45 frigates to Taiwan’s 22, and 36 destroyers to Taiwan’s four… The People’s Liberation Army now f ields nuclear-powered submarines, f ifth-generation f ighter jets and other cutting-edge capabilities that Taiwan’s military lacks,” reported David Sacks for America’s Council on Foreign Relations last year.
And yet daily life in Taiwan is very relaxed. The broad boulevards and tiny alleyways, pac
