Analysis
Getting to the heart of the matter
The initial six-month trial was extended by a further three months, but the results are now imminent against a backdrop of political pressure on funding, a cost-of-living crisis, and a continuing need to encourage modal shift to rail. CONRAD LANDIN reports
IN the “coming weeks”, ScotRail and Transport Scotland will publish an analysis of the “interim data” showing how the removal of peak fares has affected passenger numbers and fare revenue since September last year.
Scottish ministers are likely to use the report to justify whether or not they extend the pilot beyond June - or even decide to scrap peak fares altogether.
Both the operator and the Scottish Government have been coy about what it is likely to say, but Alex Hynes, who left his role as Scotland’s Railway managing director last month, gave a strong indication to the Scottish Parliament’s Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee back in March.
“We know that the trial has made the railway busier and that it has cost us money in the fare box, but we are trying to work out the exact figures,” he said.
With pressure on ScotRail to improve its balance sheet, and a limited ‘funding envelope’ for all areas of Scottish Government spending, many now believe the pilot will be axed when it is due to end on June 28.
When the trial was extended beyond the initial six months for a further three-month period, Scottish Green MSP Ross Greer, whose party has claimed credit for securing the trial, described it as a “special offer” - perhaps in the hope of managing expectations.
But a return to peak fares would mean that the cost of commuting will shoot up again in July. Affected passengers are likely to compare the cost of their commute on July 1 with the previous week, and not the previous year.
Whichever way they choose to look at it, they will be hit in the pocket -ScotRail’s fares rose by an average of 8.7% in April, significantly more than the 4.9% rise in England.
Then again, July is peak holiday season in Scotland, meaning that some commuters will not notice the change until later. Crucially, too, the Scottish Parliament will be in recess in July, taking the political heat off Scottish ministers.
The abolition of peak fares on ScotRail was first proposed by rail unions RMT, ASLEF, TSSA and Unite, in their report A Vision for Scotland’s Railways, published in October 2021 ahead of the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow.
It was prescribed as a permanent solution, although unions were still more than happy when Deputy First Minister John Swinney announced a pilot in his December 2022 Budget. They believed that once in force, it would be too politically difficult to reinstate peak fares.
So, what will be higher: the financial cost of co
