ANALYSIS >> PAUL REES PREDICTS A NERVE-RACKING END TO THE PREMIERSHIP SEASON WHERE BONUS POINTS WILL PROVE CRUCIAL
THE two-month Premiership break has made the jostling for the title even tighter. Only Bristol won both their games after the resumption with just Newcastle losing twice, albeit by single figure margins as Steve Diamond gets to work.
The upshot is a league table with a remarkable look. Take out the leaders Northampton and the bottom two Gloucester and Newcastle and seven clubs from second to eighth have the same record, won eight and lost six. They are separated by bonus points with Bath picking up 12 and Sale five.
Were bonus points not in operation, Saracens would be in second position rather than third because they have the best points difference, Bristol would be two places better off in third and Exeter, who are sixth, would complete the top four.
Bath would drop from second to fifth and Harlequins from fourth to seventh. The only match this season that Bath have failed to secure a point in was against Leicester away on New Year’s Eve when they made 12 changes from the previous week with only one player occupying the same position.
It is tighter than tight. Normally by this stage, with four rounds to go, at least one club is all but guaranteed a home draw in the play-off semi-finals, with the one in second not far away, but not this year. Will it go down to the final weekend of the regular season when, with Gloucester facing Newcastle at Kingsholm, the eight contenders may find themselves in knock-out matches a round early?
Northampton go to Bath, Saracens welcome Sale, a repeat of last year’s final, Bristol are at Harlequins and Leicester take on Exeter. The Tigers’ last four fixtures are all against rivals for the top four. Quins are the other club in the top eight who have played the bottom two twice, not that Newcastle and Gloucester are slipping gently into the good night.
There have been few doubles among the top eight – six – and a campaign in which there has been little between 80 per cent of the clubs can be summed up by: Northampton doubled Exeter who twice defeated Bristol who doubled Northampton.
Bonus points will be a factor in the final reckoning. When Bath were 37 points down to Harlequins last weekend, their thoughts did not turn to yesterday’s Champions Cup last 16 tie at Exeter. They knew that four tries would yield them a point, a tilt at two and, who knew in this mad, zany season, perhaps a chance of victory.
“For me, it was not just about bonus points but winning the game,” said Johann van Graan, below, Bath’s head coach. “The landmark was four tries because we would be back in the game and it would be a tactical battle again. In the end, we took two points from what may have looked an impossible position and that was one of the learnings
