ANALYSIS >> PAUL REES LOOKS AHEAD TO THE CHAMPIONS CUP SEMI-FINALS WHERE QUINS AND SAINTS ARE FACING AN UPHILL BATTLE
BEFORE this season’s Champions Cup started, there was a YouTube video assessing the prospects of the 24 teams taking part. Northampton were among six teams given a less than 1 per cent chance of hoisting the trophy with Harlequins slightly better fancied at 2.5 per cent.
Northampton were 80-1 to emerge victorious next month at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium but there they are in the May 4 semi-final against Leinster at Croke Park after winning all six games so far as well as leading the Premiership. They went into the campaign on a 10-match losing streak in the tournament with their last victory against Lyon in January 2020.
The only Premiership side given any sort of chance was Saracens but they lost three of their five matches and crumpled twice against the might of Bordeaux-Begles. England’s league was not highly regarded after a season in which three clubs folded. It was ridiculed but it has more teams in the last four of Europe’s premier club competition than the Top 14 or the United Rugby Championship, two compared to one each.
Northampton and Harlequins remain outsiders, 14-1 and 33-1 respectively while Leinster are at 11-10 and Toulouse 6-5, but there is respect for England’s top flight who supply two of the semi-finalists for only the second time since 2016.
“What you can see is how competitive the Premiership is,” said Leinster’s director of rugby, Leo Cullen, right. “There was sadness last season with three teams going bust, but it has thrown a lot of talent into the other teams who all picked up a number of players. They have stronger squads and they are able to manage things because there are a lot of players in England. Northampton will be a great challenge.”
Cullen was Leinster’s captain when they defeated Northampton in the 2011 final in Cardiff having been outplayed in the first half. He was on the bench two years later when the Saints won 18-9 at the Aviva Stadium a week after being overrun by the Irish side at Franklin’s Gardens, their only victory over Leinster in the competition in 10 attempts.
Phil Dowson, Northampton’s director of rugby, was on the bench that evening. His team are being given little chance next month but this has been a year in which reputation has not counted for everything and sometimes nothing at all. “We have tested ourselves against the best teams,” said Dowson. “We have Leinster at Croke Park but will not talk about that until the week comes round. Before the start of the season, I went to the Lake District with Sam Vesty (Northampton’s attack coach) and we talked about what we needed to get better at. We are delighted at how things have gone, but it means nothing currently because we have not won a
