“The failure of economists to forecast recessions is virtually unblemished,” notes Prakash Loungani, assistant director at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This includes the economists at the IM

How’s the trade war going? Short answer: as badly as expected. Capricious tariffs have shown the rest of the world that the US cannot be trusted. And they have pushed trading partners away and closer

In 1972, Yale Hirsch, author of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, devised the January Barometer, which states that as the S&P index goes in January, so goes the year. By 2005, the barometer had claimed a 90

We are in a real-life game of Risk. In 2019, Fiona Hill, an official at the US National Security Council during Donald Trump’s first term, said the Russians had informally proposed a plan whereby they

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL, PRESIDENT DONALD Trump made lofty claims about the benefits of raising tariffs. They will reshore American manufacturing jobs and encourage domestic spending, he promised. “Tari

The winners and losers of 2025 It felt ...