THE RISK REPORT BY IAN BREMMER
WHEN SUPPORT-ers of former President Jair Bolsonaro charged into the presidential palace, Congress, and the Supreme Court in Brasília on Jan. 8, they ignited a firestorm that continues to inflame passions.
The insurrection was condemned across the political spectrum, including by Bolsonaro himself. Polls suggest 3 out of 4 Brazilians, including large numbers who voted for the former President in the October election that he lost to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (popularly known as Lula), were horrified to see the ransacked offices, busted-up equipment and furniture, broken windows, and violence between rioters and police. Fewer than one-fifth of Brazilians supported the riots.
Authorities in Brazil have taken swift action in response. Of more than 2,000 rioters ini-i tially detained, around 1,200 remain under ar-r rest, and dozens have been indicted and had their assets frozen. Investigations into whether perpetrators had inside help will continue, but arrest warrants have already been issued for several government security officials who failed to prevent or stop the violent protests. Bolsonaro’s Justice Minister Anderson Torres, who was security chief for Brasília on Jan. 14 and was found to be in possession of a draft decree to illegally overturn the results of the election, was arrested on Saturday. Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes also suspended Federal District Governor Ibaneis Rocha, a Bolsonaro ally, for 90 days to ensure he won’t interfere in the legal process. In addition, the Supreme Court has placed Bolsonaro under investigationB for inciting the violence, a charge he denies. The former President faces several additional probes in the electoral court over comments made while in office, which could render him ineligible to run for President in 2026.
For the moment, a renewal of violence is unlikely, and the newly inaugurated President Lula will probably see a short-term boost in public support. But Brazil’s radicalized opposition won’t disappear. Though independent experts have dismissed claims of election fraud, public suspicion of the country’s establishment hase reached its highest point since the end of military rule in 1985. Polls show 40% of Brazilians believe Lula stole the election, and just over 36% favor military intervention to remove him. Many were already
