Soon after the 2008–9 financial crash tanked the economy, Americans’ unflagging faith in higher education started to falter. By 2011, more than half of college graduates were un- or underemployed. The economy rebounded and the conversation faded, only to be revived again by the epic fallout from the pandemic. This time, the college degree’s comeuppance has been more profound.
BY JENNY ANDERSON
EDUCATION
In 2019, Americans ranked “preparing for college” 10th on a survey conducted by Populace, a nonpartisan think tank, which asks respondents every year to rank answers to the question “What is the purpose of education?” In 2022, respondents ranked it 47th out of 57 items.
“The value proposition of college may not be what it once was,” says Todd Rose, co-founder of Populace. He’s clear that the data say not that it’s not valuable, but rather that a prioritization of careers, and the pursuit of meaningful work, has surpassed it. People want it to be on the menu, but not to be the menu.
In 2009, 70% of recent high school graduates enrolled in college. In 2021, that figure was 61.8%, about where it was in 1994. What happened?
In the Populace study, the No. 1 purpose for the fourth year in a row was that “students develop practical tangible skills” such as managing one’s finances and preparing meals. Other highly ranked measures included thinking critically to solve problems and make decisions, and demonstrating character. Being prepared for a career ranked sixth, up from 27th before the pandemic.
College is a necessary and valuable pathway for many careers; it can help learners expand their worlds and try out different identities. It can be transformative for individuals and families, especially first-generation college students. And it should be a foregone conclusion that primary and secondary education prepares all students for going to college.
But just as not everyone is cut out to be a pilot or a plumber, not everyone needs to spend two or four years studying. Students’ interests vary widely, and their flourishing will require more recognition by all of us that human variation is a feature and not a bug. We got to 70% by way of social engineering, not choice. Campaigns extolling higher education as a way to work “smart” rather than “hard,” with images of a dirty plumber next to a shiny college graduate, did not factor in the price of tuition.
There are also structural reasons underpinning our nation’s newfound hunger for skills. An unusually tight labor market means employers are less inclined to require degrees. What started with tech ha
