THE RISK REPORT BY IAN BREMMER
IF THOSE WHO staunchly opposed Britain’s exit from the European Union win next year’s general elections in the U.K., might the next British government return to the union? That’s highly unlikely. But there is plenty the two can do to improve their relations. As Keir Starmer leads Britain’s Labour Party toward a likely victory next year, ousting the Conservative Party after 14 years in power, Europeans will be watching closely.
Starmer not only opposed Brexit in 2016, he also called unsuccessfully for au second referendum in 2019 to overturn the result of the original. The mood in Britain has changed in recent years as the economic fallout of Brexit has become impossible to ignore. Opinion polls show that 56% of British voters now think it was wrong to leave the E.U., while only 32% still approve.
Starmer is hopeful his party can count on Brexit haters while earning support from
pro-Brexit voters fed up with Conservatives and taking back traditional Labour votes
in the factory towns of the Northeast and Midlands that Boris Johnson won over in
2019. That’s the political logic behind his strategy to publicly reject any move to
rejoin the E.U. and to refuse to accept the free movement of people from E.U. members.
“Make Brexit work” remains his message. As to what he would do to strengthen U.K.-
E.U. ties, the cautious Starmer will remain tight-lipped.
Once safely ensconced at 10 Downing Street, however, he will probably move quickly
to reset and improve relations, and there is plenty that can be done. His government
could rewrite rules to reduce friction on food, agricultural, and medical goods by
realigning with E.U
