The Islamic Republic of Iran has thus far proved too ideologically rigid to reform and too ruthless to collapse. As in the late stages of the Soviet Union, however, the foundations decay in plain sight. Outside their homeland, women of Iranian origin become world-class mathematicians and astronauts; inside Iran, the ruling clerics debate whether women should be allowed to ride bicycles.
BY KARIM SADJADPOUR Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
WORLD
One year ago this month, the regime’s “morality police” detained and beat a 22-year-old
woman—Mahsa Jina Amini—for allegedly showing too much hair beneath her compulsory
veil. Her death in custody triggered Iran’s longest antigovernment protests since
the 1979 revolution that transformed the country from a U.S.-
allied monarchy to an anti-American Islamist theocracy.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei managed these protests as he always does, by crushing dissent, dividing adversaries, and refusing to offer any concessions. Over 20,000 people were arrested and over 500 killed, including several who were executed. Compromising under pressure, Khamenei believes, only projects weakness and emboldens dissent.
For the U.S., Iran’s internal political dynamics have a direct bearing on national security. Viewed from Washington, Tehran is the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, is actively trying to assassinate former U.S. officials (to avenge the 2019 killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani), provides Vladimir Putin lethal drones in his war against Ukraine, and has taken more U.S. citizens hostage than any other country in the world. At least five—who have collectively spent two decades as hostages in Tehran’s Evin prison—could soon be returned to the U.S., in return for the U.S. unfreezing at least $6 billion in Iranian assets frozen in South Korea. There should be no illusions this deal will lead to a thaw in U.S.-Iran relations: senior Iranian officials—who publicly advocate hostage trading as an economic policy—have already announced the practice will continue.
A BIGGER CHALLENGE for the Biden Administration heading into election season is an advancing Iran nuclear program that could potentially trigger Israeli military action and skyrocketing oil prices. Five years after the Trump Administration withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement signed by the Obama Administration, the CIA assesses that Tehran has the technical capacity to build nuclear weapons and is within weeks of ha
