THE RISK REPORT BY IAN BREMMER
IN POLAND, AN UNEX-pected surge of voters ready for change has ousted a populist coalition government in favor of a pro-E.U., more moderate group of leaders. The Law and Justice Party, in power since 2015, won the most parliamentary seats. But its coalition partners didn’t perform well enough to allow current Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski to form another government.
It’s a striking win for politician Donald Tusk and his Civic Coalition. It’s also great news for the European Union, which can expect a new government in Warsaw that will respect E.U. rules on democracy and rule of law. The biggest surprise on election day was a turnout estimated at 73%, the highest figure in postcommunist Poland’s history. It’s a result all the more striking given Kaczynski’s unapologetic use of state media to boost his party’s support.
Once in place, Poland’s new government will work on making the changes its leaders have promised, and the E.U. has called for. In particular it will move to restore the political independence of the judiciary and media in line with E.U. rules. These reforms, in turn, will help Poland access as much as possible of the €35 billion that Poland can claim as part of the so-called Recovery and Resilience Facility, money that Brussels set aside for member states to help with pandemic recovery and the E.U.’s ambitious green- and digital-transition plans. The E.U. withheld that money from the previous government in response to its bid to bring judges and journalists under government control.
For the past several years, a populist government in Warsaw has boosted its popularity by demonizing the union, its rules on democracy, and its social policy. It has turned state-media outlets into a tool of government propaganda and stacked the country’s courts with political cronies. It did all this secure in the knowledge that E.U. punishment depended on unanimous support and that its ally in Hungary would veto any punishment. The E.U. has withheld badly needed funds to pressure Poland’s government for change, but that strategy was undercut by the need to help Poland absorb Ukrainian refugees following Russia’s invasion in February 2022.
IT’S NO WONDER THEN that Brussels is delighted to see Poland’s voters eject that government and replace
