THE RISK REPORT BY IAN BREMMER
THERE ARE many reasons why Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered a ground invasion of Gaza. He wants to ensure that Hamas can never again murder 1,400 Israelis. He needs to take bold action to restore the confidence of his people in their nation’s security. He may also believe his political survival depends on erasing the shame his government faces following the most consequential security failure in Israel’s 75-year history. None of that makes a ground invasion of Gaza the right thing to do.
There are more than 2 million Palestinians now trapped inside a war zone with nowhere to go. Yes, Israeli forces will take steps to minimize civilian casualties, but because it is one of the world’s most densely populated areas, those precautions won’t be nearly enough.
Beyond the moral problem, Netanyahu should understand that an Israeli invasion of Gaza will not make Israel safer. Inside Gaza, with Hamas dug in, even an Israeli victory would prove very costly in Israeli lives too. Israel is much more likely to be sucked into a long and brutal war than to score the hoped-for decapitation of Hamas anytime soon.
It also now appears inevitable that the large-scale killing of Palestinian civilians will force a regional escalation of the war and could raise the risk of terrorism against Jewish targets around the world. Violence is already rising in the West Bank, which may force Israel’s security forces to split their focus even further. That doesn’t mean Hizballah in Lebanon, much less Iran, will fully en
