THE RISK REPORT BY IAN BREMMER
THINGS ARE LOOKING UP FOR Vladimir Putin. Ukraine’s much-vaunted counteroffensive has made little progress, heightening fears in the West that U.S. and European taxpayers are bankrolling an increasingly costly stalemate. Russian counterattacks have accomplished little, but the ability of well-entrenched Rus-e sian forces to absorb Ukrainian blows without buckling leaves the Kremlin in control of about 18% of Ukraine’s land. Russia has expanded its missile strikes to the highest levels this year and boosted its domestic production of missiles and ammunition. Significant material support from North Korea and more drones from Iran are helping.
Putin can also celebrate the fallout from Israel’s war with Hamas. The U.S. and Europe are mightily distracted by the carnage in Gaza, which is roiling their domestic politics. Western aid that might have gone to Ukraine is now sharing focus with support for Israel and humanitarian aid for Palestinian civilians trapped in harm’s way. Making matters worse, Washington and European governments don’t see eye to eye on this battle as they do on Ukraine.
Quietly, Western leaders are warning Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky that time is not on his country’s side. More U.S. aid is probably coming. President Biden should still be able to secure a decent fraction of the $60 billion he requested from Congress.
Yet, Western efforts to push Zelensky to begin bargaining with Putin are going nowhere for now. Ukraine’s President is in no position to offer up captured land that tens of thousands of his soldiers died to defend.
