Each year, this Risk Report forecast predicts what the world should watch out for in the coming months. In 2023, the big stories centered on wars in Europe and the Middle East, and those conflicts will expand in 2024. But it’s a third “war”—the U.S. vs. itself—that poses the greatest global risk. And as always, there will be new stories that deserve more attention than they’re getting. ▶
BY IAN BREMMER
WORLD
1. THE U.S. VS. ITSELF
While America’s military and economy remain exceptionally strong, the U.S. political system is more dysfunctional than any other advanced industrial democracy. In 2024 the problem will get much worse. The presidential election will deepen the country’s political division, testing American democracy to a degree the nation hasn’t experienced in 150 years and undermining U.S. credibility internationally. With the outcome of the vote close to a coin toss (at least for now), the only certainty is damage to America’s social fabric, political institutions, and international standing. In a world beset by crises, the prospect of a Trump victory will weaken America’s position on the global stage as Republican lawmakers take up his foreign policy positions and U.S. allies and adversaries hedge against his likely policies.
2. MIDDLE EAST ON THE BRINK
The fighting in Gaza will expand in 2024, with several pathways for escalation into a broader regional war. Some could draw the U.S. and Iran more directly into the fighting. The conflict will pose risks to the global economy, widen geopolitical and political divisions, and stoke global extremism. The straightest route to intensification would be a decision by either Israel or Hizballah to attack the other. Top Israeli leaders have pledged to “remove” the threat from Hizballah. If Israel were to attack pre-emptively, the U.S. military would provide support, and Iran would assist Hizballah, its most important regional proxy. Houthi militants are also pursuing an escalatory path, and Shi‘ite militias operating in Iraq and Syria have increased attacks on U.S. bases, undoubtedly with Tehran’s blessing. No country involved in the Gaza conflict wants a regional conflict to erupt. But the powder is dry, and the number of players carrying matches makes the risk of escalation high.
3. PARTITIONED UKRAINE
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains a historic failure. NATO is strengthened by new members Finland and Sweden. The E.U. has opened a membership process for Ukraine. Russia has faced 11 rounds of sanctions, with more on the way, a
