Earth 2.0(°c)

CLIMATE

MANY HIGHLY VULNERABLE POPULA-tions and ecosystems are already facing the devastating impacts of climate change. While COP28 last year provided glimmers of hope that countries can meaningfully respond, it is increasingly clear that the rise in global temperature will exceed the 1.5°C threshold defined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Already, we are at 1.15°C of heating above the 19th century baseline and will likely pass 1.5°C in the mid-2030s. The window to forestall this event is closing, because of barriers including lack of financing, institutional capacity, and such factors as poverty, consumption, and lack of societal trust. It’s time to prepare to get closer to a 2.0°C warmer world.

Several opportunities for meaningful action lie well within our grasp. We must collectively work toward climate-resilient development—simultaneously adapting to climate risks and incentivizing opportunities to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Together, these two aims could tackle climate change while promoting sustainable and equitable economic advancement. Whether it is industries and employees retooling for a green economy, or communities fearing loss of their neighborhood to flooding or climate gentrification, the evidence is overwhelming that the more equitable and engaged the decisionmaking process, the more likely the climate action will succeed.

This is a profoundly urban century; 56% of the world’s 8.1 billion live in urbanized areas, which will also see almost all the global population growth expected in the next several decades. These places drive approximately 70% of the world’s emissions and are where most economic activity takes place. Through responsible and equitable planning, the urban (re)construction now taking place can integrate the latest climate solutions while also making our cities and towns better places to live and provide all with a higher quality of life. Fundamental to this achievement is protecting and more effectively using the services that nature provides human society. Nature-based solutions can’t address all our climate adaptation and mitigation challenges, but the data are strong that the more we can protect and enhance biodiversity and ecosystem function, the more benefits we can accrue in flood reduction, urban cooling, and air- and water-quality protection.

PEERING BACK INTOrecent history, we find lots of stories of how we have made such significant changes in the past. In a soon-to-be-published book, Citie