THE RISK REPORT BY IAN BREMMER
OVER THE DECADES, NORTH KO-rea’s leaders have periodically made bombastic threats of military force against South Korea and its foreign backers, particularly the U.S. and Japan. And for the most part, while carefully monitoring North Korean military moves on the ground, by sea, and in the air, leaders in Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo could dismiss these incendiary-sounding warnings as a substitute for action rather than a sign that aggression is imminent.
There are reasons why that might be changing—and why we should now pay closer attention to what Kim Jong Un and his generals are up to. There are growing worries North Korea could carry out a surprise attack or launch some other provocation against South Korea over the course of this year, even if it falls short of war. The risk looks particularly high in the run-up to South Korea’s next legislative elections, now set for April.
First, it is worth noting that North Korea’s Kim has publicly stepped away from previous claims that Pyongyang’s ultimate goal is a peaceful reunification of the two Koreas on North Korea’s terms, a fantasy North Korean officials have promoted for decades. To be sure that his point wasn’t too subtle, he recently ordered the destruction of a large monument to reunification in Pyongyang and tagged South Korea as his country’s “primary foe and invariable principal enemy.”
This comes at a time when North Korea is also partnering more closely with Moscow in the supply of weapons and ammunition for Russia’s war on Ukraine, partially in exchange for Russian technology that could boost North Korea’s long-range firepower, satellite coverage, and cybercapabili-ties, including against American targets. The longtime ideological affinity Moscow and Pyongyang share in hopes of building a world order no longer dominated by U.S. power has increasingly shifted into commercial relations with battlefield importance, boosting Pyongyang’s self-confidence and maybe its risk tolerance.
Second, I’m hearing more overt warnings from senior Chinese officials, unhappy with closer North Korean–Russian relations, of a potentially “explosive” threat that North Korea poses for South Korea. For his part, South Korea’s President Yoon Suk-yeol is offering no conciliation in response. In fact, he has pledged that his country would hit back “multiple times as har
