BY WILLIAM WALLDORF
WORLD
The U.S. is creeping toward war in the Middle East. A drone attack on a U.S. base in Jordan on Jan. 29 killed three American troops and injured 34 others. A militia supported by Iran claimed responsibility. In retaliation, President Joe Biden ordered 85 strikes in Iraq and Syria and promised more to come, a dangerous escalation that could spiral out of control. Are Americans ready for war? Not at all. ▶
Pro-Israel sentiments aside, the U.S. public and its leaders are deeply divided today about Middle East policy. War will not only lead to recession and drain U.S. resources to the benefit of China, but rifts at home could also do harm to U.S. foreign policy for years to come. It’s time, then, for Biden to de-escalate tension and push Israel toward peace.
Each major U.S. war since 1900 was buoyed at its outset by a big story that research shows galvanized national consensus and buy-in to the costs of war. A story about the existential danger of Soviet expansion and stopping communism brought robust initial support for wars in Korea and Vietnam. In the 2000s and 2010s, the big story was about Sept. 11 and defeating terrorism. The “war on terror” narrative helped generate strong initial public support for U.S. involvement in Afghanistan (88% in 2001) and Iraq (70% in 2003).
So where is the U.S. national story today? Well, there is none. The antiterrorism narrative disappeared with the decline of al-Qaeda and ISIS in the late 2010s. By 2019, 59% said Afghanistan “was not worth fighting” and only 27% said interventions in other countries made the U.S. safer. In short, with terrorism down, U.S. energy independence up, and Iran more a nuisance than an existential threat, the U.S. is left today with no big, unifying story for deep Middle East engagement, especially war.
The absence of a big story is showing up today in debates about the Middle East. Polls show that 84% of Americans worry about getting pulled into war. Some 65% want a cease-fire in Israel’s war in Gaza, not U.S. military action. Biden’s efforts to rally the nation with eloquent statements haven’t worked either. (As other Presidents can attest, that happens with no big story.) Only 33% approve of Biden’s handling of today’s crisis.
Opposition to Biden’s approach on Gaza
