THE RISK REPORT BY IAN BREMMER
IT’S BEEN THREE YEARS SINCE Myanmar’s ruling junta clawed back power from an elected government, and its grip on power is becoming costlier for all concerned. Recent fights with well-armed ethnic groups have inflicted heavy casualties on the country’s military. The Defense Ministry admitted in March 2023 that 14,000 troops had deserted since the coup. The true number was surely higher then and is much higher now. Add the army’s broad unpopularity to public fears that troops have become cannon fodder, and recruiting isn’t going well either.
That’s why the generals have announced that beginning in April, their government will conscript 50,000 to 60,000 citizens per year under the so-called People’s Military Service Law. This statute isn’t new. A previous military government put it on the books in 2010 but never needed to use it. But today’s desperate times call for more desperate measures that allow the army to draft any man ages 18 to 35 and any woman 18 to 27. Draftees can be ordered to serve for up to five years. The junta has also announced that retired military personnel will be called back into service, also for up to five years, under another emergency law. The army knows that draft notices risk serious public unrest, and it’s not at all clear that more troops will help.
Yet the junta won’t go down easily. It may not have the monopoly on military firepower it would like, but it still has the best and most weapons, and can still contain dissent, even if the cost is rising. The current battleground stalemate with rebel groups will likely continue; a continuing cease-fire in one region will help focus the fight in others.
Nor will outsiders play a game-changing role. U.S. sanctions, including a few more introduced in late January on the third anniversary of the coup that returned the generals to power, won’t persuade them to restore democracy. Myanmar’s government can continue to work around them. Amnesty International reported in January that Myanmar’s government is able to evade restrictions by using third parties to import crucial resources like aviation fuel. In particular, the generals know they can still count on friends in China for trade and investment
