THE RISK REPORT BY IAN BREMMER
A PRESIDENT FACING A TOUGH fight for re-election warns his followers that corrupt elites want to steal power from them. He loses the election and calls on his supporters to defend him. Unable to block the transfer of power, he retreats to Florida. His supporters attack government buildings to protest the election result. Out of power, the former leader now faces criminal charges—and accusations that he’s the one who tried to steal the last election. He remains a formidable political force, one who will shape his country’s politics for years to come.
This is the story of Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro.
There is one crucial difference between Bolsonaro’s current position and that of former President Donald Trump. Courts in Brazil have ruled that his accusations that the country’s voting machines were used to rig the election against him disqualify Bolsonaro from running for office for eight years. While Trump is the presumptive GOP nominee.
On March 1, a former army commander reportedly told federal police that Bolsonaro was considering issuing a presidential decree to revoke the results of the election he’d just lost. That account aligns with claims made by other former officials. Bolsonaro denies these charges.
His approval rating stands at 43%, up 10 points since he left office, and 38% of respondents tell pollsters the election was stolen from him. On Feb. 25, Bolsonaro held a peaceful rallyB in São Paulo attended by an estimated 600,000 to 750,000 people. Major opposition leaders support Bolsonaro’s message that he’s a victim of persecution. (Unlike Trump, Bolsonaro has avoided criticizing courts and judges.
