THE WORLD’S WEATHER IS CHANGING. CRUISING GURU JIMMY CORNELL EXPLAINS HOW TO FUTURE-PROOF YOUR VOYAGE PLANNING
‘Sailing routes depend primarily on weather, which changes little over the years. However, possibly as a result of the profound changes that have occurred in the ecological balance of the world environment, there have been several freak weather conditions in recent years. The most worrying aspect is that they are rarely predicted, occur in the wrong season and often in places where they have not been known before. Similarly, the violence of some tropical storms exceeds almost anything that has been experienced before.
‘The depletion of the ozone layer and the gradual warming of the oceans will undoubtedly affect weather throughout the world and will increase the risk of tropical storms. The unimaginable force of [recent] mega hurricanes should be a warning of worse things to come.
‘All we can do is heed those warnings, make sure that the seaworthiness of our boats is never in doubt and, whenever possible, limit our cruising to the safe seasons. Also, as the sailing community depends so much on the forces of nature, we should be the first in protecting the environment, and not contribute to its callous destruction.’
STORM TRACKS
The ferocity and frequency of named storms is increasing, while conventional storm seasons are extending beyond their accepted limits. This image shows the track of hurricanes and named storms in the Atlantic in 2021
Those words were written in 1994 in the foreword to the third edition of my book World Cruising Routes, but they are more pertinent than ever today. In the intervening years the global weather conditions have seen major changes, especially in the location, frequency, strength and extra-seasonal occurrence of tropical cyclones. So how can we as cruisers plan voyages in such a rapidlychanging world?
WARMER OCEANS
In its sixth assessment of the impact of climate change, published in April 2022, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that climate change is causing dangerous disruption in nature and is affecting billions of people, stressing the urgency to act.
* The oceans are getting warmer * The Arctic ice cap is melting at a faster rate than in any recorded times, as reported from Greenland this year
* Tropical storm seasons are less clearly defined and becoming more active
* Extra-seasonal tropical storms are more common * The Gulf Stream rate is slowing down * Coral is dying due to ocean warming
According to a report published in 2022 by the International Union for Conservation of Nature, the astonishing pace of warming in the oceans is the greatest hidd
