Will the u.s. see even bigger strikes this year?

GOOD QUESTION

▽ Union activists protest in support of railroad workers demanding sick pay

WORKERS: FATIH AKTAS—ANADOLU AGENCY/GETTY IMAGES; PELÉ: SCHIRNER—ULLSTEIN BILD/GETTY IMAGES; POPE: ALESSANDRA BENEDETTI—CORBIS/GETTY IMAGES; WALTERS: LUISA DÖRR FOR TIME

A FEW YEARS AGO, IT MIGHT HAVE BEEN DAUNTING to try to start a union at an arts organization during times of economic uncertainty. But that’s exactly what Jorie Moss, 34, and a group of professional singers did in early December when they asked the Philadelphia Orchestra Association to recognize them as a union so they could negotiate a contract. A recession may be coming, says Moss, but the pandemic changed what workers are willing to tolerate.

“The time that we all had to sit in our rooms and think about what we’ve done—I’m talking about the pandemic—gave us a chance to reflect on the fact that these are conditions that we don’t have to stand for, we should be treated better, and we deserve to ask for it,” she says.

It’s been more than a year and a half since waves of labor unrest started sweeping through the country. Thousands of workers have walked off the job for better conditions, and long-shot campaigns—like organizing workers at Starbucks coffee shops—have snowballed, leading to a surge of union elections. Though the strong labor market that emboldened workers is softening, these conflicts will continue in 2023, says Thomas Kochan, a professor of employment research at the MIT Sloan School of Management. “I expect what we’ll see is more conflict, more strikes, and more contract rejections,” Kochan says. Workers are still focused on companies’ profits during boom years, he notes, while companies are starting to trim costs to prepare for an economic downturn. “It’s that difference in expectations,” he says, “that creates a higher probability of conflicts and strikes.”

Indeed, workers have staged some of the highest-profile walkouts as the economic news has become more grim. Corporate giants including PepsiCo, Amazon, and Goldman Sachs announced layoffs, but workers at both the New York Times and Starbucks walked off the job in mid-December. Though companies are jettisoning workers, the job market is still extremely strong, which may be giving workers more confidence. There were 10.3 million jobs open in October, government data show; more than double the average of 4.6 million that month from 2000 to 2020. Around 58% of Americans said they thought they’d be able to find a new job if they lost their current one, the highest rat