THE RISK REPORT BY IAN BREMMER
TURKISH PRESI-dent Recep Tayyip Erdogan was mayor of Istanbul when a devastating earthquake hit Izmit in 1999, killing more than 17,000 people and devastating the country’s economy. The government’s shambolic response to the natural disaster allowed Erdogan to burnish his credentials as a capable and compassionate leader, setting the stage for his election as Premier in 2003.
Erdogan has maintained an iron rule ever since, outliving economic downturns, refugee crises, corruption scandals, protest movements, and even a coup attempt. But with the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections coming up, two seismic shifts threaten Erdogan’s grip on power.
The most obvious challenge to Erdogan’s re-election is his botched response to the earthquakes that rocked Turkey and Syria in February, which claimed over 45,000 lives and internally displaced some 2 million people. The government’s emergency rescue efforts were plagued by incompetence, and many Turkish citizens blame Erdogan’s consolidation of power and populist policies for allowing shoddy construction to grow unchecked.
THE SECOND and perhaps more significant challenge to Erdogan’s rule is a main opposition bloc that has united behind a joint presidential candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the People’s Republican Party (CHP). Kilicdaroglu has surprisingly managed to consolidate much of Turkey’s notoriously fractious opposition under the umbrella of the Nation Alliance, which comprises social-democrat, center-right, right-wing, and Islamist parties, while also expanding support for the bloc.
TO HAVE A SHOT at beating Erdogan, Kili
