THE RISK REPORT BY IAN BREMMER
THE ANTARCTIC Treaty, signed at the height of the Cold War in 1959, stipulated that the southern continent could not be used for military purposes, but it encouraged scientific research. Today, rapid technological advances have changed the game. There are information-gathering tools now available that can be used for either scientific or military purposes. These dual-use technologies are at the heart of a growing controversy over China’s Antarctic intentions.
China already has four research bases on Antarctica, but it is now accelerating construction work on a fifth, at a place called Inexpressible Island. When it’s finished, this site will include a satellite ground station that could be used for scientific communication. But it could also be used for espionage. In particular, it could eavesdrop on the governments of Australia and New Zealand, two members of the so-called Five Eyes intelligence-sharings alliance with the U.S., Britain, and Canada.
The U.S., the U.K., South Korea, and others also have research facilities in the Antarctic region, but this latest construction comes at a time when some in the West are scrutinizing every major Chinese project for security threats.
The historical context complicates things even further. China was not one of the dozen countries that signed the 1959 treaty, and when it tried to add its signature in 1981, it was blocked on the grounds that it had not invested enough in Antarctic research. China finally joined in 1983 and began construction on its first Antarctic research site a year later. Its current projects will allow Beijing to argue that it now ma
