By Alice Park SENIOR HEALTH CORRESPONDENT
CLIMATE EXPERTS HAVE LONG warned about the many ways a warming planet can negatively affect human health. Now that global temperatures are predicted to increase by 1.5°C by the 2030s, that risk is becoming increasingly real.
One long-held prediction that appears to be coming true—according to the results of a study recently published in Nature Scientific Reports—is how climate change might expand concentrations of bacteria that thrive and spread through warm sea waters and cause an infection with a particularly high fatality rate.
Vibrio vulnificus flourishes in salty or brackish waters above 68°F. Infections are currently rare in the U.S., but that’s likely to change. Using 30 years of data on infections from the bacterium reported to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, scientists at the University of East Anglia in the U.K. found that Vibrio vulnificus is expanding from its historic Gulf Coast range, with more Northern states reporting infections as waters become warmer.
“We’re seeing the core distribution of infections extending to areas that traditionally have very few and very rare cases,” says Elizabeth Archer, a Ph.D. researcher in the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia and lead author of the study. “But these areas are now coming into the main distribution of infections.”
Based on the latest data on how much the world’s water and air temperatures will rise, the scientists predict that by 2081, Vibrio vulnificus infections could reach every state along the U.S. East Coast. Currently, only about 80 cases are reported in the U.S. each year; by 2081, that could jump to 200 cases, the authors say.
Such a proliferation could have serious health consequences. Vibrio vulnificus kills approximately 20% of the healthy people it infects, and 50% of those with weakened immune systems. There is no strong evidence that antibiotics can control the infection, but doctors may prescribe them in some cases. People can get infected either by eating raw shellfish like oysters or by exposing small cuts or wounds to waters where the bacteria live, which can lead to
